The Australian dollar is a proxy for global growth. My concern is of a more precipitous decline in the Australian dollar under the scenario of faltering global growth.
More Quotes from Paresh Upadhyaya:
The Fed is closer to moving to a pause in monetary policy. We've turned more bearish on the dollar.Paresh Upadhyaya
Japan is a much larger holder of Treasures, so if they made any change in their foreign exchange policy, that could have a significant and immediate impact on U.S. markets.
Paresh Upadhyaya
The market did react quite negatively to the dollar as this rumor triggered speculation this administration may be giving up its strong dollar policy.
Paresh Upadhyaya
The Japanese would like to see a weaker yen. They thought it strengthened too much unilaterally.
Paresh Upadhyaya
The Chinese probably concluded they have far too much exposure to the dollar, and that the dollar has peaked for this cycle, given the Fed may be moving to a neutral position. Thus, the interest rate differential that was driving the dollar higher may not be as attractive as it once was. The risk is now the dollar may begin to depreciate. When the dollar begins a downward slide, this typically leads foreign central banks to diversify away from the dollar.
Paresh Upadhyaya
Growth is still quite strong and therefore there may be more room to hike. When you look at the interest rate differentials they still favor the dollar.
Paresh Upadhyaya
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