Exports were flat for a second month running and that has been what is most broken in the trade picture.
More Quotes from Steven Wieting:
We had unintentional inventory declines in the second and third quarters, which is what you would typically get in a recession. I think companies will need to build 50 billion per quarter in inventories, even if the demand growth rate is just 3.5 percent.Steven Wieting
Seeing a two-year low in confidence in the wake of Hurricane Katrina isn't that surprising. The news in the month of September has been terrible. The television coverage and the emotional impact of the story has a big effect on confidence in the short run. But spending has been inconsistent with these confidence numbers.
Steven Wieting
We continue to expect a long, successful business cycle expansion amid well-known challenges. However, visibility has been somewhat reduced, and the Fed is not fighting off increased market expectations of policy tightening.
Steven Wieting
Business conditions are really slack. The latest rally in stocks doesn't change that.
Steven Wieting
If demand stays strong and productivity growth slows considerably, this could be a year that could be seen as heading towards traditional overheating of the labor market, with big employment gains.
Steven Wieting
Year-end financial markets can be difficult, and winter economic data is difficult to read, ... It makes more sense that December will be month they skip. You don't want to be raising rates into what can be an illiquid market.
Steven Wieting
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