I think we know corporate profit growth can't stay at the rate we've seen in recent quarters. They (employers) have been squeezing the work force pretty aggressively, squeezing productivity out of workers and holding the line on wages. It's a matter of how much corporate profits slow down.
More Quotes from Ethan Harris:
The number itself wasn't very surprising, ... (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan's comments last week that the trade gap might start getting smaller raised attention and some hopes. But I didn't agree with him about that.Ethan Harris
The one thing that companies can do quickly without laying people off is reduce the number of hours per week as the economy slows, that's the natural place for a company to cut back. It's a little harder to pull back quickly on job hiring.
Ethan Harris
In an ideal world, three simultaneous gradual adjustments would happen. The U.S. eliminates the budget deficit, China revalues by 30 percent and China works to rebalance growth more to consumption and less to exports. Of course none of this will happen and the pressure for protectionism from Congress grows.
Ethan Harris
You don't want to force the new chairman to open his term by having to make a a 50 basis point rate hike.
Ethan Harris
What we're looking for is evidence of the corporate side of the economy gaining confidence and making real commitments in its own spending. There, I'd say the news is at best mixed,
Ethan Harris
In the big oil shocks that really damaged the economy, the tax on the consumer was many times more than that, but that alone wasn't enough. You also had to have people worrying that prices were going higher forever.
Ethan Harris
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