Although inventory rebalancing is well underway, weak sales and elevated inventory-to-sales ratios will keep downward pressure on industrial production and manufacturing employment, ... This situation is unlikely to improve until spending accelerates.
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New claims during the survey week are broadly similar to where they have been for the last two months, when payrolls fell. Continuing claims have been ratcheting steadily higher. Labor market weakness remains.Steven Wood
The Fed will welcome this report as it suggests that slower economic growth will be extended into the third quarter. The probability of an August rate increase continues to diminish and is now below 50 percent.
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Higher claims suggest slower job gains, which should dampen income growth, consumer spending, and overall economic activity.
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Unless there is a quick rebound in sales, this suggests further weakness in production and declines in inventories over the months ahead.
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This relative stability has been remarkable given the ebbs and flows in job creation, the equity markets, the conflict in Iraq, the election campaign, interest rates and gasoline prices.
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Slack demand and intense competition are preventing companies from raising prices.
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