If oil goes to 50 a barrel, I think we're talking about 3 percent economic growth, rather than 4 percent growth, possibly. And the jobless rate could actually go up, not down, because the long-term potential economic growth rate is actually 3.5 percent -- we could actually be falling below potential.
More Quotes from Sung Sohn:
For every 10-percent appreciation in the dollar, it cuts inflation by one full percentage point, assuming the strength of the dollar is sustained,Sung Sohn
The bedrock of consumer spending and confidence is employment. The expectations of more jobs has boosted consumer confidence.
Sung Sohn
If the economy does not move out of the soft patch, monetary policy could be on hold beginning September until the economy shows signs of renewed strength.
Sung Sohn
It's pretty clear that all the pieces for capital spending are in place, including rising sales, lower inventories and increases in shipments and orders, ... So, despite what CEOs say in public, there's no question that capital spending -- outside of aircraft and telecommunications -- has bottomed and is on the way up.
Sung Sohn
Unless the labor market gains some steam and momentum, both real income and confidence of consumers would be hurt.
Sung Sohn
Our research shows the jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, ... They have almost perfect correlation.
Sung Sohn
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