We definitely have to figure that once tax filing season is done and tax refunds are cashed, we do expect consumer spending will slow down in the second half of this year, ... I don't see any way to fudge that (higher financing costs). You're not getting the employment gains or wage and income gains to offset that.
More Quotes from John Silvia:
Summer months can be particularly hazardous for forecasters, ... The timing of the end of the school year, seasonal hiring patterns and even weather can distort the monthly figure.John Silvia
People have adjusted faster than we expected to the way they use credit. This could be a signal that Christmas sales may be weaker than expected.
John Silvia
This good news supports the view of continued economic and employment gains with limited upside risk of rising interest rates.
John Silvia
Labor costs were one of the key inflation concerns cited by Chairman (Alan) Greenspan in his latest testimony, ... Our outlook reinforces his concern.
John Silvia
I think it's just oil and optimism about the New Year. I think oil is the driving factor due to the warmer weather, but people are now looking for better than expected (fourth-quarter) earnings, better than expected retail sales number. There's a host of good numbers out there.
John Silvia
If you're going to set a price below market price, you're going to have to have some sort of rationing. I don't care if it's gasoline, prescription drugs or rent control in New York City.
John Silvia
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