Manufacturing job losses in the second half of 2005 pushed Arkansas' overall job growth for the fourth quarter to zero. However, Arkansas firms ... benefiting from the opening of the Japanese and other Asian beef markets, and J.B. Hunt Transport, profiting from the U.S. economic expansion, will drive Arkansas job growth higher in the first half of 2006.
More Quotes from Ernie Goss:
It's going to be stronger in the first quarter and in the end of the second quarter. It's going to weaken as higher interest rates set in.Ernie Goss
For 2006, Minnesota's big economic stories will be problems related to the continuing cutbacks in the U.S. auto industry, a turnaround for the telecommunications industry, and finally a weakening of Minnesota's construction industry. Nonetheless, our survey points to still solid growth for the first half of 2006.
Ernie Goss
Transportation firms reported continuing economic weakness. While 2006 is likely to be a positive year for the Oklahoma economy due to an improving telecommunications sector and expansions in business service firms, the closing of GM operations in Oklahoma City will produce some fairly negative economic consequences.
Ernie Goss
After growing at a very strong pace in 2005, we are now detecting a slowdown in the pace of growth. Just as nondurable goods manufacturers reported improving economic conditions, durable goods producers detailed a pullback in economic conditions for the month. I expect this slower pace of growth to continue into 2006.
Ernie Goss
I expect higher commodity prices and escalating short-term interest rates to push regional growth down significantly in the second half of 2006.
Ernie Goss
While our inflation gauge and most national inflation indicators point to somewhat lower inflationary pressures ahead, I expect the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee to raise interest rates at its next meeting on Jan. 31. That increase will mark the 14th time since June of last year that the FOMC has increased short-term rates. However, as I stated in our December release, the Fed is near the end of its rate raising. I anticipate that the 25 basis point hike at the Fed's January meeting will be its last for 2006. Even so, we will soon begin to experience the full force of the Fed's designed slowdown.
Ernie Goss
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