As long as unemployment is relatively high ... the Fed is under no pressure to start tightening. Right now, you have to think they've really won the war on inflation -- they're at least as worried about deflation as inflation at this point. They're not going to do anything that would jeopardize this recovery right now.
More Quotes from Bill Cheney:
We're not only stuck in a soft patch we're spinning our wheels. To get back to full employment, we need a lot more demand, and that's hard to see coming anytime soon from either domestic or international sources.Bill Cheney
I don't think the Fed is going to move today, but I think they probably will adjust their statement simply because of all the uncertainty around consumer and business reaction to war.
Bill Cheney
Job losses cut directly into the spending of the newly unemployed, and indirectly tend to have a very real impact on the confidence of those who are still working. If demand falls, firms will lay off more employees, and the downward spiral could put us over the edge into a bona fide recession before the Fed's actions can take effect.
Bill Cheney
If there are danger signs brewing ... that make people very, very nervous, I don't see anything that could prevent the same kind of mood (as Black Monday's) from reappearing. It's clear that you don't need a very concrete, cut-and-dried kind of trigger to make people stampede if they're in the mood to be stampeded.
Bill Cheney
There is still a big backlog to be made up before it feels like a tight job market. Clearly it's a tighter job market than it was a year ago, and if we continue to add a million jobs a quarter, we'll move in that direction. But I think it will take a little bit of time.
Bill Cheney
I don't really see this as down it's really flat. We're still at a level well above the post-Sept. 11 low and so long as it doesn't trend downward, I'm comfortable with the idea that consumer spending is going to hang in there.
Bill Cheney
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