The announcement by Neiman Marcus...makes us as concerned as we have ever been that this Christmas will be extremely lackluster, ... It appears now the high-end consumer is beginning to scale back their purchases, which does not bode well for the holiday season. This type of thing is clearly going to have an impact on other high-end retailers.
More Quotes from Bill Dreher:
We're not out of the woods yet. Forty percent of holiday sales are wrapped up in the week before Christmas.Bill Dreher
The stock is manipulated by perceptions of the future, and investors are very concerned right now that the economy is weaker than we thought. Wal-Mart is doing a superb job. On other the hand, the stock is vulnerable.
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There has been real concern for the last several months about hurricanes, about consumer sentiment, about gasoline inflation hurting consumer spending,
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It's clear that Wal-Mart is going to offer very sharp price discounts to drive customer traffic. While fourth-quarter sales will be respectable, the lower prices necessary to drive traffic will filter through to earnings that are below the current consensus estimates.
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I don't think it's a Wal-Mart problem. It's a demographic problem. If you were focused on the moderate-income sector, you were disappointed.
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Clearly the last 10 days before Christmas were very strong and allowed retailers to achieve their sales plans for the month despite the lack of aggressive promotions we saw in 2002.
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