The rule of thumb is fairly simple. If the market believes the cost of conflict is going to rise in terms of blood and treasure, it's going to discount that and sell off. If it believes the cost of conflict is going to fall, the market is going to discount that and rise. It's really that simple.
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As long as the government is of the opinion that it's going to resolve this problem, than I think the market's sense is that this is going to be a mess, but it's something that will be cleaned up eventually. But if we lose the political will to sustain this fight, you're going to see the market react in a very bad way.
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