This is a Fed that has demonstrated excellent crisis management skills. But by the time we come to November, the Fed should be able to act with a greater degree of confidence. A pause in November would mean a severe downgrade in the prospects for the economy while tightening in November would show that the effects of Hurricane Katrina were probably temporary.
More Quotes from Chris Probyn:
There's now a possibility of a pause whereas last week I would have described the thought as lunacy. But this does not necessarily portend a pause, ... The Fed will be busy in the next two weeks to come up with as much hard information as to the size and duration of the hurricane effect.Chris Probyn
This was a disappointing number relative to expectations and certainly consistent with the idea that consumer spending is going to be a much smaller contributor to economic growth in the fourth quarter.
Chris Probyn
This doesn't look like an economy that's rolling over. This looks like an economy that has shown resilience and continues to move ahead.
Chris Probyn
I think the Fed keeps going as long as GDP growth stays between 3 percent and 4 percent. That would be not too hot to make them go faster or too cold to make them pause,
Chris Probyn
The US absorbs exports from across the world. So there will be ripple effects, as well as the indirect impact of the oil price.
Chris Probyn
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