The report will not comfort the Fed, despite the good headline data, ... The news further back in the pipeline was not good.
More Quotes from David Orr:
My belief all along is the unemployment rate is the key to consumer behavior, ... A 4.5 percent unemployment rate would be more than a half a percentage point above the low of 3.9 percent. If unemployment goes up a half percentage point from its trough, you almost always get a recession subsequently in the next 12 months. There is a snowballing effect that begins to happen once you get too much past that size increase. While it might take a nice round 5.0 percent rate before people get panicked, the snow may already be rolling over them by then.David Orr
We're looking at an innovative non-standard way to float the company, that may involve giving existing shareholders priority in any offering. We're not ruling anything out.
David Orr
The results are great for builders, great for sellers of home building products and consumer household products, and great for growth, ... But, the dramatic strength in both units sold and in prices are both more fuel for a more aggressive Fed.
David Orr
We have often noted the Fed tries to choose a policy action that minimizes the consequences of a mistake. Which would have the least negative consequences today easing too much and setting off an excessively strong rebound or easing too little and allowing the economy to slip back into recession We would vote for the former.
David Orr
Initially, we estimated the number of people in need was about one million and we had reached about 50 percent of them. We've had a food security team in the field and they've revised the estimate up quite dramatically.
David Orr
We seriously doubt this report will dissuade the Fed from a 50-basis-point hike today. But if the May 'core' report is also benign and May retail sales are only moderate, that could cause the Fed to take a pass at the June 28 meeting.
David Orr
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