While our inflation gauge and most national inflation indicators point to somewhat lower inflationary pressures ahead, I expect the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee to raise interest rates at its next meeting on Jan. 31. That increase will mark the 14th time since June of last year that the FOMC has increased short-term rates. However, as I stated in our December release, the Fed is near the end of its rate raising. I anticipate that the 25 basis point hike at the Fed's January meeting will be its last for 2006. Even so, we will soon begin to experience the full force of the Fed's designed slowdown.
More Quotes from Ernie Goss:
For example, greater reliance on ethanol by the U.S. will make many areas in the region clear economic winners.Ernie Goss
I expect higher commodity prices and escalating short-term interest rates to push regional growth down significantly in the second half of 2006.
Ernie Goss
The most recent rate increases, and a rate hike at its next meeting, in my judgment will slow growth to an unacceptably low rate for the region and the nation.
Ernie Goss
There's every reason to have some concern there.
Ernie Goss
However, the real danger is that the warm weather may have fooled many into thinking the economy is doing better than it is.
Ernie Goss
Manufacturing job losses in the second half of 2005 pushed Arkansas' overall job growth for the fourth quarter to zero. However, Arkansas firms ... benefiting from the opening of the Japanese and other Asian beef markets, and J.B. Hunt Transport, profiting from the U.S. economic expansion, will drive Arkansas job growth higher in the first half of 2006.
Ernie Goss
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