There's this alternative scenario where the financial crisis starts to bleed into the economy in a major way,
More Quotes from Ethan Harris:
When you get a new chairman in place you're going to have a more democratic and less predictable, less transparent Fed. The new chairman won't get the same automatic respect Greenspan has. It's not that (central bankers) will turn into a bunch of farm-yard animals, but there will be a more normal discussion going on.Ethan Harris
At every stage in the past three years, employment has disappointed relative to overall activity. It's a chronic issue, and there's been a tendency for economists to hope this will finally be the month when improvement occurs. But I have no reason to believe it will.
Ethan Harris
Fed officials ... likely anticipated some fallout in fixed income markets, ... We believe ... that Fed officials wanted to signal a greater probability of tightening in 2004 than had been priced into markets.
Ethan Harris
The main thing holding back the economy in the past year and a half has been a lack of business confidence, and now we're seeing these surveys with a fairly optimistic take on the economy. The non-manufacturing survey certainly reflects the general increase in confidence, and that's a self-fulfilling thing.
Ethan Harris
If job growth is just 50,000 a month, you can be sure that the unemployment rate is going to rise at some point in the coming months.
Ethan Harris
Companies are paying more compensation and getting less productivity growth.
Ethan Harris
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Instead of joyfully looking forward to my birth, my mother began systematically preparing for her own death. She was fatalistic.
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