They'll wait to see how Christmas shapes up, and if it's weak, they'll give another rate cut in January.
More Quotes from Ethan Harris:
If job growth is just 50,000 a month, you can be sure that the unemployment rate is going to rise at some point in the coming months.Ethan Harris
We think the ISM services number is one of the worst monthly pieces of data there are. On a month-to-month basis, it has no correlation with service sector employment, and on a quarter to quarter basis, it has no correlation with service sector gross domestic product.
Ethan Harris
Only with very weak U.S. growth or a major drop in the U.S. dollar will the trade deficit improve on a sustained basis. The reason you need these dramatic movements is that the U.S. has, according to almost every study, an incredible appetite for imports.
Ethan Harris
The Fed has made it clear that it will take quite ugly news to get them to move in advance of any clarity around the Iraq situation. That means the March 18 meeting seems too early to expect a cut.
Ethan Harris
For the Fed to hike rates now would be the equivalent of a doctor prematurely declaring a patient at full health, discharging them from the hospital and then forcing them to run a mile.
Ethan Harris
From the market perspective, there's a big difference between 6 percent and 5.8 percent unemployment, especially since there's a lot of talk out there that maybe a recovery is at hand.
Ethan Harris
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