We think inflation is going to remain benign going forward.
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Rubin was a great Treasury Secretary. Nobody in the Bush administration comes close.Ethan Harris
The economy is one ugly event away from contraction.
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But the obvious effect is on utility consumption, which will affect industrial output in the economy. People consume more electricity, that places more demand on natural gas, coal, power, and electrical systems.
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Companies are paying more compensation and getting less productivity growth.
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Thus we are bumping up our growth and Fed call. We now expect the funds rate to peak at 5.5 percent at either the August or September FOMC Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
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Payrolls were well below the whisper number, so there's been a big sigh of relief in the market,
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