With inflation trending up, we believe the Fed will want to stay on the tight side of neutral for an extended period.
More Quotes from Ethan Harris:
We reached the point where we don't trust our model anymore. That's why we were below the consensus.Ethan Harris
The main thing holding back the economy in the past year and a half has been a lack of business confidence, and now we're seeing these surveys with a fairly optimistic take on the economy. The non-manufacturing survey certainly reflects the general increase in confidence, and that's a self-fulfilling thing.
Ethan Harris
Rubin was a great Treasury Secretary. Nobody in the Bush administration comes close.
Ethan Harris
Rising rates could have a tremendous impact on slowing consumer spending. Consumer spending has been about 6 percent, when adjusted for inflation. Rising rates could bring it down to 2 or 3 percent.
Ethan Harris
It's not a question of a sudden explosion in prices. It's more an erosion of the low-inflation psychology.
Ethan Harris
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