Claims have now been essentially static for three months, so even if the latest declines turn out to be unsustainable, the data will still show that the trend is no longer rising rapidly, and may not be rising at all, ... It looks like the worst of the worst is now over in the labor market.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
No doubt these numbers will be taken by the market as a clear sign of a softening housing market and, by implication, an indication that higher interest rates are biting. We are much more skeptical housing starts lag home sales, which have been depressed in recent months more by lack of inventory than by higher interest rates.Ian Shepherdson
This number comes completely out of the blue -- there has been nothing in the anecdotal or survey evidence even hinting at such a massive rebound,
Ian Shepherdson
Just about everyone who buys a house uses a mortgage, so a sustained drop in mortgage demand tells you where home sales are going, regardless of the current sales data.
Ian Shepherdson
If claims remain anywhere near this week's level, they will send a very strong signal that the labor market is tightening.
Ian Shepherdson
We are not forecasting a recession, but there is some truth to the notion that negative news can be a self-fulfilling prophesy. If companies expect demand to slacken, they scale back production. And if consumers expect doom and gloom, they scale back spending. That's just the way it works.
Ian Shepherdson
We have no real idea what the number next week will be, but we can be pretty sure that for the next few weeks the data will tell us next to nothing about the state of the economy across the country outside the areas hit by the storm.
Ian Shepherdson
Readers Who Like This Quotation Also Like:
Based on Topics: Labor QuotesBut as a coach I wanted to keep things from being too complicated.
Bob Cousy
I have with me two gods, Persuasion and Compulsion.
Themistocles
If there is something I would like to do as President of the General Assembly, it is to place more emphasis on the issue of education, which enables a better life for women.
Harri Holkeri