Looking forward, we think there is next to no chance these numbers mark the start of a real slowing in consumer spending. The markets will no doubt take comfort from the headlines, but it is temporary relief.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
The Chicago PMI has been very volatile over the past couple of years, probably as a result of the tribulations of the auto industry. As a result it has become a less reliable indicator of movements in the national ISM and the January dip does not necessarily mean the ISM will follow suit.Ian Shepherdson
The Fed's chief worry is still the labor market, ... So long as the unemployment rate does not fall further, and clear signs of consumer slowed own emerge, the Fed will be able to leave rates on hold.
Ian Shepherdson
The mystery is how to square with this with both the Redbook and Bloomberg chain store sales surveys, which pointed to a huge gain, ... Maybe it will come in March, or today's numbers will be revised up. Either way, this is a brief diversion, not a change
Ian Shepherdson
After the attack on Pearl Harbor, the New York stock market fell 5 percent over two days. As the United States mobilized and expressed its resolve in the ensuing days, the stock market came back.
Ian Shepherdson
The chairman will likely tell the House Budget Committee that conditions are set for recovery.
Ian Shepherdson
It is tempting to blame the softness of core sales on the surge in gas prices, but we think it is too soon for that.
Ian Shepherdson
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