There may be some adverse seasonal effects at work in the claims numbers, thanks to the late Easter, but the underlying trend is surely unfavorable, ... A reversal requires a quick and steep recovery in business confidence.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
The trend in sales is probably not as weak as this seems to suggest, but there is no question that the condoco-op market is slowing much more dramatically than the market for single-family homes. Even in the latter case, however, sales have fallen more than 10 from their summer peak.Ian Shepherdson
This is a sign that the committee is beginning to think aloud about shifting to a more neutral position - but the forecast of significantly slower growth will have to come first, ... For now, the elevated headline inflation rate and the tight pool of available labor remain bigger concerns, so the Fed's guard is still up.
Ian Shepherdson
These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates, ... Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.
Ian Shepherdson
Expectations are a leading indicator and are consistent with modest spending gains. Stronger stocks will push the index up further, and soon. This is a good report.
Ian Shepherdson
The new Fed Chairman clearly expects to have to raise rates a bit further, but the extent of the tightening is dependent on the relative performance of the labor and housing markets.
Ian Shepherdson
A serious downturn in housing activity will have to wait until there is a meaningful increase in mortgage rates, ... For that, we have to wait until payrolls take off and the Fed signals tighter policy.
Ian Shepherdson
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