I'm not sure which form it will take -- maybe a lengthy period of subdued consumer spending or something more violent than that. But it's clear to me that households cannot continue to save 3 percent of their disposable income and grow debt at 10 percent per year.
More Quotes from Jan Hatzius:
Oil is the dog that didn't bark. It's neutral because it's not far away from the average of where it's been over the past year.Jan Hatzius
A year ago, it was not that difficult to predict six months in advance where they were going to be. That's going to be harder when you are at 5 percent and you think the economy is going to be weak enough to get them to cut rates.
Jan Hatzius
Income figures ... were surprisingly low for December given the strong gains reported for the fourth quarter on Friday and the likelihood that bonuses would have boosted December gains.
Jan Hatzius
The ... numbers feel surprisingly weak, compared with the recent macroeconomic news flow, ... The survey makes us more comfortable with the view that capital spending growth over the next few quarters will remain relatively moderate by the standards of past recoveries.
Jan Hatzius
While the official productivity data look impressive, alternative measures that are equally reasonable show a much more subdued picture.
Jan Hatzius
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