Valuation for the stock appears significantly high for a company with a sustainable earnings growth rate of 10 percent to 15 percent. We have difficulty imagining any second-half recovery that could raise earnings, and investor expectations, to a level sufficient to keep the stock moving up.
More Quotes from Joe Osha:
The clock-speed wars have gotten to the point where it's not clear who benefits. It's certainly not the customer who wants to buy 700 MHz stuff at reasonable prices. It has been a problem, but availability has improved over the past four weeks or so.Joe Osha
We continue to believe that we are in the second year of a 5- to 7-year investment cycle in Internet infrastructure.
Joe Osha
What we see happening is a bottoming to the rate of change in the semiconductor business, which has been negative and less capacity being added by the fourth quarter, which is also good. So, although companies themselves are still very conservative we think that the worst is past in terms of the downturn here.
Joe Osha
We admit to some difficulty in seeing what supports consensus earnings estimates.
Joe Osha
For now, we're staying with the neutral intermediate-term rating on AMD's stock until we see how the company weathers the Northwood launch. We are still long-term strong buyers of the stock -- even if AMD suffers at the hands of Northwood it will not plunge as deeply into loss as it has during past Intel offensives.
Joe Osha
The reason I am positive on the stock right now is the fact they are pushing into servers, workstations -- the things that are being driven by growth in the Internet. That is a big market that Intel can dominate, I think, pretty quickly.
Joe Osha
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