We are currently estimating first-quarter US real gross domestic product growth at 5.3 per cent and feel the risks are nearly uniformly stacked on the upside.
More Quotes from John Silvia:
If they don't move to a neutral position, the bond market will react negatively. If the Fed sits there and reiterates the same risk on inflation, the bond market is going to look at this and say the Fed is way behind the curve.John Silvia
People have adjusted faster than we expected to the way they use credit. This could be a signal that Christmas sales may be weaker than expected.
John Silvia
What you're seeing is that inflation is rising, ... It's still at a low level, but you know what the trend is. The question to ask is, How much is too much At what point does the Fed say it's risen enough that we don't want it to go any higher That's the difficult question to answer.
John Silvia
There are varying degrees of pain, but I don't think there are going to be many sectors that are not going to be impacted,
John Silvia
The problem is, it doesn't look like a leadership position. Top Wall Street guys aren't going to hang around and just be salesmen.
John Silvia
On balance, I think it's the latter. In most businesses, inventories are in line with sales expectations.
John Silvia
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