There are reasonably deep-seated reasons for pessimism on the part of home builders.
More Quotes from Joshua Shapiro:
Export growth will remain solid in the months immediately ahead, which ought to help blunt (but not fully offset) the detrimental effect on the trade deficit of a likely acceleration in import growth.Joshua Shapiro
We continue to expect the Fed funds target to reach 5 percent in the second quarter of next year, which is where we see the tightening process ending. Comments from Fed officials suggest that they expect only a temporary hit to growth from higher energy prices, while concern about a drift up in core inflation is increasing.
Joshua Shapiro
Clearly, as this sales data and also the mortgage application data show, there is plenty of strength still in housing. However, is this, as we speculate above, fence-sitting buying ahead of perceived rate increases, or can this pace be maintained as buyers think that low rates will last for the foreseeable future.
Joshua Shapiro
While this was obviously a good month, we don't expect this to continue. We think it's going to be a slow drift up in core inflation going forward.
Joshua Shapiro
We would not jump to any conclusions based on these numbers, particularly as the weekly jobless claims figures, adjusted for hurricane effects, point to considerably stronger job growth than reported.
Joshua Shapiro
In the third quarter, trade will resume its role as a weight on growth, but we are still likely to see a robust G.D.P. picture.
Joshua Shapiro
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