If a single introduction of a pandemic-capable strain is likely to happen, then multiple introductions are also likely.
More Quotes from Marc Lipsitch:
Right now, we can make roughly 60 million doses domestically of a normal flu vaccine in a normal year, ... But according to recent research, the total amount of antigen required to immunize a person against H5N1 is four times as much as the total amount in a normal flu shot. In a pandemic, nearly everyone would need flu vaccines, but with the current version, we could immunize only 15 million Americans, just over 5 of the country.Marc Lipsitch
Putting a lot of hopes on it is a bad idea.
Marc Lipsitch
In normal flu years, most of us have immunity, either from the vaccine or from having the flu in previous years, ... But in pandemics, we have no prior immunity, and it's just like being hit with a completely new disease that we've never built up any ability to fight. That's why the mortality tends to be high even in the age groups that don't usually get very sick from flu.
Marc Lipsitch
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