With the core inflation readings fly-papered to a narrow range around 2.5 per cent, there is scope for the RBA to continue its rates-on-hold strategy for several more months.
More Quotes from Stephen Koukoulas:
Any hopes that the Reserve Bank could hold off raising interest rates have been dashed, ... If the bank is going to contain inflation in 2006 and 2007, they have got to keep raising rates.Stephen Koukoulas
The credit data, together with the TD-MI monthly inflation gauge for October suggest the Reserve Bank will leave interest rates unchanged,
Stephen Koukoulas
The case for a rate hike, while not totally compelling yet, is gaining a bit of momentum with these sort of numbers. On an interest-rate-differential and growth story, it should put the Australian dollar back in focus and see it move higher.
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The case for a rate hike is clearly much stronger. The rest of the world is raising interest rates and global inflation rates are edging higher. Fuel-price increases will flow through to inflation.
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There's an opportunity to buy U.S. dollars on the expectation that by the second half of this year U.S. strength will be sustained.
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A big increase could certainly get the Reserve Bank a little nervous. They'd be very close to pulling the trigger, raising the rate.
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