Clearly, the best news on inflation is past. These data show that households were spending aggressively last year and that there is a great deal of spending momentum coming into 2000. The Fed needs to tighten now, and they will.
More Quotes from Steven Wood:
As long as average job creation remains around or exceeds 200,000 and the unemployment rate continues to decline, the FOMC will continue to raise interest rates.Steven Wood
Retail spending was much stronger than anticipated. Although some of these gains were due to post-hurricane spending, it appears that consumers are not yet ready to throw in the towel.
Steven Wood
The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's policy-making arm) will look at these data as being benign, ... No change in interest rates is expected at next week's meeting although the committee will retain its bias toward tightening.
Steven Wood
The numbers are consistent with a recovering manufacturing sector, with little indication of any slowdown in the post-Y2K period, ... For the FOMC, with few signs of slowing economic activity outside of housing, a rebounding manufacturing sector will keep the pressure on for higher rates.
Steven Wood
With the next FOMC meeting only another week away, it is unlikely any of them will tip their hands regarding monetary policy,
Steven Wood
Retail sales have slowed over the last six months in response to the slower pace of job creation, higher rates, and increased volatility in the stock market. Indeed, in the past two years there has been tight relationship between the Nasdaq and retail spending, suggesting further spending weakness in coming months.
Steven Wood
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