If the economy does not move out of the soft patch, monetary policy could be on hold beginning September until the economy shows signs of renewed strength.
More Quotes from Sung Sohn:
Until and unless there are significant increases in jobs over a period, tighter monetary policy is out of the question.Sung Sohn
In the summertime, we have a lot of plant shutdowns, especially in the auto industry. Despite that, we saw a drop in initial claims, ... That's indicating that the employment market has not only stabilized, but has begun to improve slightly.
Sung Sohn
A quarter-point cut Tuesday could weaken confidence by reinforcing pessimism in the market place, ... Instead, Fed Chairman Greenspan should stand pat, sending a positive message that economic recovery is in sight and no additional monetary stimulus is needed.
Sung Sohn
Inventories really being run down to ground, but that means that any increase in demand in the future will be translated into more production and jobs. We're feeling the pain right now, but it means we're more likely to get economic growth starting early next year.
Sung Sohn
Overseas, we have a terrible time competing in the automobile market, in part because a strong dollar makes U.S. cars more expensive. Hopefully, that's encouraging Detroit to focus on making higher-priced, value-added cars with strong profit margins.
Sung Sohn
Employment gains are rising at a slower rate, retail sales are decelerating somewhat, the stock market is going through some turmoil and the Middle East situation is also probably having a dampening impact on consumers' willingness to spend, ... So I think the Michigan confidence report is consistent with an overall picture in which consumers are doing well, but probably taking a breather for a while.
Sung Sohn
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