My concern is that inventories are so low, some businesses will actually miss sales through stock-outs.
More Quotes from Sung Sohn:
This is a terrible number. The economic recovery is almost three years old, and the economy should be producing 200,000 to 300,000 jobs per month.Sung Sohn
The third cylinder of economic growth is beginning to fire, ... The other two cylinders are inventory swings and consumer spending. Outside of telecommunications and airplanes, business capital spending has begun to improve already, beginning in the first quarter.
Sung Sohn
But if things start to go wrong -- if business spending doesn't pick up, or state and local governments lay off more people than anticipated, or auto sales fall off, or interest rates go much higher -- then a combination of these factors would really affect the economy going forward.
Sung Sohn
Customers we talk to are saying they're going to respond to increasing demand, but they won't do anything in anticipation of increasing demand, ... That's why employment, inventories and manufacturing will move in positive directions, but I don't think it will be anything spectacular.
Sung Sohn
Without a doubt, there will be a contraction in the third quarter's GDP of approximately 0.9 percent, ... Given the slow start in October, the most likely scenario calls for a larger contraction in the 2.8-percent range in the fourth quarter.
Sung Sohn
Once the employment picture stabilizes, around midyear, we should see a more rapid and sustained recovery in consumer confidence.
Sung Sohn
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