Daniel Niles Quotes (9 Quotes)


    We've seen this how many times already this year -- three ... A lot of these names could have 50 percent downside from here. Our big issue is, are the sequential declines (in revenue) over I'd say no.

    Contract manufacturers have seen their inventory grow 104 percent year-to-date, versus revenue growth of 52 percent, while distributors have seen a 24 percent increase in inventory in the past six months, versus a revenue increase of 15 percent.

    Given that many PC vendors and chip suppliers are looking for a PC upgrade cycle to start in the (second half) of this calendar year, this is somewhat sobering,

    the second quarter was the inflection point for both revenue and earnings-per-share growth.

    We continue to believe this is a second half story, but need to see revenue growth return year-over-year given this is the third-quarter in a row of revenue estimate reductions.


    It seems as though more aggressive pricing is not spurring much of an increase in demand, resulting in a trade-off between profitability and revenue growth.

    Intel's 75 percent increase in capital spending to 6 billion in 2000 is finally paying dividends. We believe that Intel now has the capacity to ship 15 percent more processor units quarter-over-quarter. We also believe that average selling prices are very firm for the third quarter.

    We believe both revenue growth and margins are within the range of guidance given in the third-quarter earnings release and feel comfortable with our estimates for the fourth quarter.

    We believe that since Intel's pre-announcement in early December that consumer and commercial demand has continued to get worse with commercial showing the most disturbing trends. In addition, we believe that servers, which had actually been on track for part of the quarter, saw some softening that we believe is related to corporate IT budget stretch outs.


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